In 1972, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) concluded that society was on track to collapse by the year 2040. A recent follow-up study conducted by an analyst at KPMG found that we are actually ahead of schedule - advanced human civilizations have existed for at best 10,000 years, and many great empires have risen and fallen in that time, leaving behind little more than artifacts and crumbling architecture.
While it's difficult for historians to definitively pinpoint the causes of these collapses, the determining factors tend to fall into four broad categories: political issues, social and cultural issues, environmental issues, and economic issues. Any civilization that has been reduced to little more than an entry in a textbook fell through some combination of these four factors, with some collapses happening almost instantaneously, like the great city of Pompeii succumbing to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, while others took centuries, like the 300-year span between the height of the Roman Empire and its eventual collapse.
The MIT study, titled "The Limits to Growth," set out to primarily explore whether our current usage of the world's resources was sustainable. The study was one of the first economic studies to use computers and dynamic systematic models to replicate the workings of complex real-life systems.
The researchers created a computer model called "World 3," which simulated everything from variable population growth to industrial capacity and how these factors would interact with one another. The model tracked five key variables: population, industrial output, food production, available resources, and pollution.
The researchers ran the simulation multiple times, tweaking the initial conditions and assumptions to account for different scenarios. Some simulations assumed that innovation and worker productivity would continue at a constant pace, while others assumed that technological progress would slowly plateau. They also ran models with varying birth rates, resource discovery rates, and levels of global trade.
Despite the range of outcomes, the researchers found that most of the scenarios showed a significant decline around the year 2040. The study presented three main possible trajectories:
In this optimistic scenario, technology progresses fast enough to ensure that our productive capacity can keep up with the growing population's needs for food, housing, and other resources. While the model still predicts a significant drop in food production due to pollution and misuse of arable land, this is addressed through technological innovation. The population starts to plateau around 2040, not due to starvation, but rather the natural tendency of wealthier, more urban populations to have fewer children.
In this model, industrial output does peak and then decline, but this is offset by the more efficient use of resources. For example, self-driving cars could reduce the need for individual car ownership, leading to a drop in industrial output but not necessarily a decline in living standards.
This scenario assumes that the world maintains its current rate of innovation while also investing heavily in renewable energy sources and materials recycling processes. The main difference from the comprehensive technology scenario is a more voluntary reduction in industrial output before it creates problems like food shortages and excessive pollution.
While the original 1972 study saw this as the most optimistic outcome, the 2021 follow-up study by Gaia Herrington suggests that the path we are currently on best represents what the 1972 researchers dubbed the "business as usual 2" scenario, which is much more dire.
This model highlights a very clear collapse, with pollution continuing to increase exponentially and recycling of common materials never becoming economically viable or widely subsidized. Industrial output does reach a higher level than in the other scenarios, but this is followed by a drop in food production, causing massively declining birth rates in rich countries and famines in poor countries.
The lack of young workers further reduces industrial output, which in turn hinders economic prosperity. Easily accessible resources also dwindle away, further reducing industrial output and economic prosperity. This scenario represents a complete collapse of society, where the quality of life would be far worse than even the most prosperous kings of the past.
The Limits to Growth report has faced some criticism over the years, with some arguing that the study has a very pessimistic view of human innovation. These critics concede that the current rate of innovation may not be sufficient to avoid the doomsday scenario, but they believe that necessity is the mother of invention, and as soon as humanity's back is against the wall, more attention and resources will be devoted to developing technologies that could push us towards the more palatable comprehensive technology scenario.
We can already see this happening to some degree, with a surge in the availability of renewable energy sources in the public market. However, there are still areas where progress has been lacking, such as waste management.
Another criticism is that the study's reliance on computer models and simulations makes it inherently flawed, as predicting the future is an incredibly complex and uncertain task. The researchers themselves acknowledged the limitations of their approach, noting that they were essentially "hedging their bets" by running multiple scenarios rather than making a definitive prediction.
Despite these criticisms, the 2021 follow-up study by Gaia Herrington found that the data is tracking the predictions in the business as usual model with alarming accuracy. This suggests that the original study's warnings should not be dismissed lightly.
So, what can we do to avoid the dire scenario outlined in the business as usual model? Here are a few key steps we can take:
Of course, these are just a few of the many steps we can take to try to avert the potential collapse outlined in the Limits to Growth report. The challenges we face are complex and multifaceted, and it will take a concerted, global effort to address them.
While we should certainly do everything in our power to work towards a more sustainable future, it's also important to consider the possibility that the business as usual scenario could come to pass. In that case, it's crucial to start thinking about how we can prepare for the potential collapse of society.
One of the key things to focus on is becoming more self-sufficient and resilient. This could involve learning survival skills, such as foraging for food and purifying water, as well as developing the ability to grow your own food and generate your own energy. It's also important to build strong community connections and support networks, as these will be crucial in the event of a societal collapse.
Another important step is to start diversifying your investments and assets. Instead of relying solely on traditional financial instruments, consider investing in tangible assets like precious metals, land, and other resources that could hold value even in a collapsed economy.
Of course, preparing for a potential collapse can be a daunting and even overwhelming task. It's important to strike a balance between taking practical steps to prepare and not becoming consumed by fear and anxiety. Remember, the future is not set in stone, and the actions we take today can make a real difference in shaping the world of tomorrow.
The Limits to Growth report is a sobering wake-up call for humanity. The fact that the 2021 follow-up study found that we are actually ahead of schedule in terms of the report's predictions is a stark reminder that we cannot afford to ignore the warning signs.
While the comprehensive technology and stabilized world scenarios offer some hope, the business as usual model paints a truly terrifying picture of the future. If we continue on our current path, we could be facing a complete collapse of society, with a quality of life far worse than even the most prosperous kings of the past.
The good news is that we still have time to change course. By investing in renewable energy, supporting innovation, promoting education and global cooperation, and encouraging sustainable population growth, we can work to avert the worst-case scenario and build a more sustainable future.
At the same time, it's important to prepare for the possibility that the business as usual scenario could come to pass. By becoming more self-sufficient, building strong community connections, and diversifying our assets, we can increase our resilience and increase our chances of weathering the storm.
Ultimately, the Limits to Growth report is a call to action for all of us. We must take the warnings seriously and work together to create a more sustainable and resilient world for generations to come. The future of our civilization may very well depend on it.
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